Macro Analysis
Do ESG Efforts Create Value?
Research by Bain & Company and EcoVadis indicates that positive ESG outcomes are a trait of successful companies.
Chart of the Week: Lay off on Layoffs
Blackrock Summary: Student of the Market
Blackrock does a nice job of summarizing the extraordinary nature of 2022’s market performance, but adds some useful context regarding ensuing historical market rebounds and the long term performance advantage of diversified portfolios.
The Forgotten Lessons of 2008
Seth Klarman’s 2010 investor letter outlining forgotten lessons from the GFC is just as relevant today.
Reccession Indicators
Slowest growth in money supply and Largest yield curve inversion in over 40 years, which is one of the most reliable indicators for recession. Why would the fed want to further pressure financial conditions in lite of falling inflation?
Optimistic about a Soft Landing
From Apollo’s Q4 credit strategies newsletter. The comic on the right explains the Fed’s current dilemma in a simplistic way.
Soft Landing Scenario Continues To Play Out
Wage inflation is rolling over across the income distribution, see chart below. A slowdown in wage inflation is exactly what the Fed is trying to achieve with tighter monetary policy. And note how it is happening without an increase in the unemployment rate. Lower inflation with a steady economy and steady earnings is the definition of a soft landing.
Blackstone Byron Wien 10 Surprises
In its 38th year and nowadays under Blackstone (formerly under Morgan Stanley), Byron Wien’s 10 potential surprises is always an interesting and quick read. You be judge of which of them would actually be surprises if they occur.