The Drums of War

For the past 72 years, the world has thankfully turned without a major global war. Over the past year, however, the risk of such an event appears to be rising. Events in Syria and unsettling actions by North Korea have caused increased tension among the U.S., China, and Russia. Should this tension break into an armed conflict, the impact on markets could be severely negative. A tail risk like war always exists and generally remains a tail risk; currently this risk appears to be increasing. We do not recommend any actions in response to this increased tail risk now; nevertheless, it as a key risk for the coming year.